IS RAMPING UP ATTACKS IN EASTERN UKRAINE. FIVE NATIONS, INCLUDING THE US ARE WARNING THAT RUSSIA COULD LAUNCH A SERIES OF CYBER ATTACKS, WHICH COMES AFTER RUSSIA TEST LAUNCHED A NUCLEAR CAPABLE MISSILE. THE CYBER ATTACKS WOULD TAKE AIM AT COUNTRIES BACKING UKRAINE, WHICH ALSO COMES AMID THE KREMLIN’S GROWING FRUSTRATION AND ITS FAILURE TO MAKE MILITARY GAINS. JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS FORMER CIA COVERT OPERATIONS OFFICER MIKE BAKER.
MIKE WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS COULD LOOK LIKE?
AND HOW SHOULD WE RESPOND? WELL, IT COULD LOOK VERY UGLY. UM AND THE PROBLEM IS THAT IT’S NEW TERRITORY AND WHICH IS WHY YOU KNOW NATIONS HAVE BEEN SO RELUCTANT EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE ENGAGED IN IN A SENSE, IN SORT OF CYBER WARFARE ALREADY AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS IN TERMS OF TESTING AND MAPPING OUT. OTHER NATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE. THE REASON WHY IT’S BEEN SORT OF A SENSITIVE AREAS BECAUSE IT IS NEW TERRITORY BECAUSE WE DON’T KNOW HOW QUICKLY IT COULD ESCALATE AND WHAT A PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE WOULD LOOK LIKE.
BUT I CAN GUARANTEE YOU IF RUSSIA WERE TO DECIDE. THAT FOR WHATEVER REASON THAT THEY’RE THEY’RE THEY BELIEVED THAT IT WAS A GOOD NEXT STEP TO ENGAGE IN MAJOR CYBER ATTACKS AGAINST THE U. S. AND NATO. THEY ESSENTIALLY CROSSED THE LINE THAT WE CAN NO LONGER THAN SAY.
ALL RIGHT, WE CAN’T GET ENGAGED BECAUSE WE DON’T WANT TO PROVOKE. YOU KNOW WHAT HE’S DONE IS HORRIBLE ENOUGH. BUT IF HE STARTS SHUTTING DOWN POWER GRIDS, THAT’S AN ACT OF WAR AGAINST NATO OR THE US SO THAT THAT BECAUSE WE’VE HAD THIS CONVERSATION BEFORE, WHETHER CYBERWARFARE IS IN FACT THAT AN ACT OF WAR AND THEN WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO ELICIT A RESPONSE? YEAH AND THAT’S AND AGAIN. YOU’RE THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE PENTAGON AND YOU KNOW, OUR ALLIES.
WE’VE ALL BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS QUESTION OVER THE YEARS AS STUDENT BECAUSE IT’S DIFFICULT, RIGHT. YOU CAN ATTRIBUTE A MISSILE ATTACK TO A NATION YOU CAN. YOU CAN FIGURE THAT OUT. YOU KNOW THE LAUNCH POINT, YOU KNOW THAT YOUR DIRECTORY UH, THAT’S EASY TO DEFINE, AND WE’VE GOT DECADES OF KNOWING WHAT A PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE COULD LOOK LIKE TO THAT. BUT WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT, UH, YOU KNOW, ENGAGING IN IN CYBER ATTACKS ON A STATE SPONSORED LEVEL AGAINST ANOTHER NATION.
AH, THAT IS YOU KNOW THAT’S AN UNKNOWN AND THAT SCARES A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE MILITARY AND THE INTEL COMMUNITY. NOT JUST HERE IN THE U. S BUT WITH OUR ALLIES BECAUSE AGAIN, THE PROBLEM IS ESCALATION AND HOW RAPIDLY THAT COULD THAT COULD ESCALATE AND WHAT THAT COULD MEAN. THEN, IN TERMS OF YOU KNOW, GLOBAL CONFLICT THAT YOU CAN’T WALK BACK FROM MY HOW DOES PUTIN. SAFE FACE AT THIS POINT.
HE’S ALREADY BEEN EMBARRASSED BY NOT TAKING OVER UKRAINE. NOT ONLY IN DAYS AND WEEKS. IT’S A COUPLE OF MONTHS NOW, UM HE’S HAVING TROUBLE JUST SOLIDIFYING THAT LAND BRIDGE TO THE BLACK SEA. AH IF YOU READ IT RIGHT. HE’S GOT SOME POLITICAL PRESSURE AT HOME.
AND I THINK WHAT WE WORRY ABOUT THE WEST. IS THAT OUT OF, UM YOU KNOW, REACHING A POINT WHERE HE HAS NOTHING TO LOSE. HE STARTS DOING THESE THINGS TO US. RIGHT AND I THINK HE’S UM YEAH, THERE WAS SOME TALK EARLY ON IN THIS CONFLICT THAT YOU KNOW HE WAS OFF THE RAILS AND MENTALLY UNSTABLE AND I DON’T THINK THAT’S THE CASE.
BUT THERE IS THE DANGER OF HIM NOT SEEING AN OFF RAMP HIM NOT SAYING AWAY AS YOU PUT IT TO SAVE FIX.
NOW THERE’S A THERE’S JUST SOME IMPORTANT YOU KNOW PARAMETERS HERE. THEY’VE GOT A VERY IMPORTANT DATE COMING UP MAY 9TH , WHICH IS VICTORY DAY, RIGHT, WHICH IS THE RUSSIAN CELEBRATION OF THE DEFEAT OF THE. THE SURRENDER OF THE BACK IN MAY 9TH 1945 IN THE IT IS, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT PUTIN WANTS SOMETHING THAT HE CAN TRUMPET ON MAY 9TH VICTORY DAY IN RUSSIA TO TRY TO SHORE UP HIS IMAGE AND TO SHOW THE POPULATION.
LOOK WE’VE DONE THIS NOW, WHETHER THAT MEANS HE’S COMPLETELY SECURED. AH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DOWN THROUGH THERE AND CREATED THIS LAND BRIDGE THAT WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR SOME TIME.
UM, THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIM TO TOWN. LOOK, THIS IS WHAT WE’VE DONE. LOOK AT THIS. WE’VE WE’VE WE’VE RESCUED. YOU KNOW OUR BROTHER IN AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UKRAINE.
THAT’S HOW HE WOULD PUT IT. UM AND PERHAPS THEN THAT ALLOWS FOR SOME TYPE OF DISCUSSION. BUT THE YOU KNOW, THE DIFFICULTY HERE IS THAT WE’RE TALKING THE U. S NATO WE’RE TALKING ABOUT LOOK, THE ONLY VICTORY HERE IS IF WE GET THE RUSSIANS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE UKRAINE WELL, THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN IN THE UKRAINE SINCE 2014. MHM AND WE WEREN’T TALKING ABOUT IT FOR THE PAST SEVEN YEARS, RIGHT?
WE WEREN’T TALKING ABOUT GETTING THE RUSSIANS OUT OF THE UKRAINE FOR THE PAST SEVEN YEARS AS A MATTER OF NATIONAL SECURITY FOR THE U.
S AND NATO. BUT NOW WE ARE SO YOU KNOW, WE’RE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE YOU KNOW, THERE MAY NOT BE ANY ROOM TO NEGOTIATE THIS IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY. AND THAT IS A KEY QUESTION RIGHT THERE THAT YOU JUST POSED BECAUSE I WAS THINKING OF THE WORDING THAT YOU JUST USED ABOUT WHAT PUTIN COULD DECLARE. UM WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH WITHOUT THERE BEING AN OFFICIAL NEGOTIATION AND AN END TO THIS AND THEREFORE UKRAINE AGREEING TO GIVE UP?
OFFICIALLY THOSE PORTIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE.
YEAH I DON’T KNOW THAT. YOU KNOW, WE’RE IN A POSITION AT THIS STAGE WHERE PRESIDENT SLANSKY AND THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT PEOPLE ARE WOULD BE WILLING TO SAY FINE. WE WILL. WE WILL GIVE UP THIS TERRITORY DIDN’T A SENSE WE HAVEN’T HAD CONTROL OVER RIGHT FOR 77 PLUS YEARS.
UH, BUT. YOU KNOW AGAIN, YOU HAVE TO LOOK IN THE REAL WORLD. YOU KNOW, WE THERE’S THE EMOTION OF ALL OF THIS AND THE FIELDS, YOU KNOW, AND THE PRIDE THAT YOU KNOW, EVERYONE FEELS IN THE FIGHT THAT THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE ARE PUT UP. BUT AT THE SAME TIME YOU. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT.
WHERE IS THIS GOING? AND IF WE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAPONRY , AND NATO PROVIDES WEAPONRY TO THE UKRAINE IS THAT SUFFICIENT IN ITSELF TO REACH SOME VICTORY WHERE THEY RUSSIANS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE UKRAINE. I DON’T SEE HOW THAT WORKS, SO THAT WE WERE DOING THAT WOULD IMPLY THAT WE DO SOMETHING MORE THAN WE’RE DOING CURRENTLY. AND THEN WE’RE IN THIS GAME WHERE WE’RE THINKING WITH THAT OF PUTIN. WE WILL SEE.
ALL RIGHT, MIKE BAKER. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US. THANK YOU. AND MORE OF AMERICAN AGENDA. AFTER THIS.
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