Betting Markets Know Best–Who Is Likely To Win The Midterm Elections?

The midterms are here. Many people make confident predictions. But whom should we trust?

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We’ve got the “experts” on tv.

Polls–there are lots of them.

Professional election forecasters.

And finally, the best predictors: people who bet.

The bettors are more accurate than anybody else, maybe because they put their own money on the line.

electionbettingodds.com, a website I created with Maxim Lott, averages prediction market data from betting websites around the world. That’s the best information we have about the future.

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